Weather Prospects for 22 July 2028
No climatology can promise a clear eclipse. This page publishes the named stations, original BOM metrics, record lengths, and missing evidence behind its limited comparisons.
Quick answer: Bourke Airport's published July record contains fewer mean cloudy days than Sydney Observatory Hill's, but the cloud records cover different periods and lengths; neither number predicts the sky during totality. Dubbo and Cocos Island lack usable long cloud-day rows in these summaries, so their rainfall measures are reported only as rainfall context.
The cloud evidence at a glance
These are mean monthly counts copied from BOM station summaries. They are not percentages, forecasts, or probabilities:
Bourke's clear/cloud series contains 10 years; Sydney's contains 56. The difference in evidence length prevents a controlled like-for-like ranking.
Download and reproduce the transcription
Download the complete CSV. It includes every published value used here, the exact BOM label, unit, record length and span, station scope, source page, upstream BOM CSV, and verification date. No value is converted into a cloud percentage or combined score.
| Station | BOM metric | July value | Years | Record span | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney (Observatory Hill) Station 066062 | Mean number of clear days | 12.0 days | 56 | 1955–2010 | BOM Sydney (Observatory Hill) summary |
| Sydney (Observatory Hill) Station 066062 | Mean number of cloudy days | 8.7 days | 56 | 1955–2010 | BOM Sydney (Observatory Hill) summary |
| Sydney (Observatory Hill) Station 066062 | Mean number of days of rain ≥ 1 mm | 7.4 days | 162 | 1858–2020 | BOM Sydney (Observatory Hill) summary |
| Bourke Airport AWS Station 048245 | Mean number of clear days | 13.0 days | 10 | 1999–2009 | BOM Bourke Airport AWS summary |
| Bourke Airport AWS Station 048245 | Mean number of cloudy days | 3.4 days | 10 | 1999–2009 | BOM Bourke Airport AWS summary |
| Bourke Airport AWS Station 048245 | Mean number of days of rain ≥ 1 mm | 2.1 days | 26 | 1998–2026 | BOM Bourke Airport AWS summary |
| Dubbo Airport AWS Station 065070 | Mean rainfall | 43.4 mm | 30 | 1994–2026 | BOM Dubbo Airport AWS summary |
| Dubbo Airport AWS Station 065070 | Mean number of days of rain ≥ 1 mm | 5.4 days | 29 | 1994–2026 | BOM Dubbo Airport AWS summary |
| Cocos Island Airport Station 200284 | Mean rainfall | 208.3 mm | 123 | 1901–2026 | BOM Cocos Island Airport summary |
| Cocos Island Airport Station 200284 | Mean number of days of rain ≥ 1 mm | 14.0 days | 117 | 1907–2026 | BOM Cocos Island Airport summary |
Method
- Read the July column from each Bureau of Meteorology all-years monthly climate-statistics summary.
- Transcribe the Bureau's metric label, value, unit, years of available data, first year, and last year without conversion.
- Keep metrics separate: rainfall and rain days are not substituted for clear-day or cloudy-day observations.
- Treat missing or short cloud records as missing evidence; do not calculate a cloud percentage or eclipse-day probability.
What this dataset cannot answer
- Monthly means do not describe the sky at eclipse time on 22 July 2028.
- A station is a point observation and may not represent a city, region, route, horizon, or viewing site.
- Records cover different periods and lengths, so station values are not a controlled like-for-like experiment.
- The Bureau's all-years summaries are updated as observations become available; checked_on records when this transcription was verified.
- Clear days, cloudy days, rain days, and rainfall measure different things and must not be combined into a viewing probability.
Why this replaces the old 43% and 47% Sydney figures
Earlier site copy displayed 43% on the Sydney guide and 47% on this weather page. Neither presentation identified a reproducible dataset, station, record period, observation time, or definition of “cloud cover,” so the figures are withdrawn rather than reconciled.
The documented replacement is the BOM Sydney Observatory Hill station 066062 summary: a July mean of 12.0 clear days, 8.7 cloudy days, and 7.4 days with at least 1 mm of rain. The clear/cloud observations cover 56 years from 1955 to 2010. The station is closed, so it is a historical central-Sydney reference, not a live observation site.
Bourke: a short cloud record
The BOM Bourke Airport AWS station 048245 summary reports July means of 13.0 clear days, 3.4 cloudy days, and 2.1 rain days. The clear/cloud rows contain only 10 years from 1999 to 2009; the values therefore describe a short historical record and not the probability of seeing totality.
Dubbo: rainfall context, not cloud evidence
The BOM Dubbo Airport AWS station 065070 summary reports 43.4 mm mean July rainfall and 5.4 rain days. Its clear/cloud rows contain only two years of observations, so they are excluded. Rainfall is not converted into cloud probability.
Cocos Island: no published long cloud-day values
The BOM Cocos Island Airport station 200284 summary reports 208.3 mm mean July rainfall and 14.0 rain days. It publishes no usable long-term clear/cloud-day values. Those rainfall measures provide wet-weather context only.
How to make the final weather decision
Use climatology only as background when choosing flexible travel plans. Close to the event, use current official forecasts, warnings, and satellite imagery for every safe, lawful site you can realistically reach. Confirm road conditions, access, fuel, communications, and the Sun's sightline before moving; a marginal cloud difference never justifies unsafe travel.
Frequently asked questions
Which station has the lower published July cloudy-day mean?
Bourke Airport AWS reports 3.4 mean July cloudy days and 13.0 clear days; Sydney Observatory Hill reports 8.7 cloudy days and 12.0 clear days. The Bourke cloud record contains only 10 years and the Sydney record 56 years, so this is a description of two unequal historical station records, not a clear-sky probability.
How cloudy is Sydney in July?
The BOM all-years summary for Sydney Observatory Hill reports a July mean of 12.0 clear days and 8.7 cloudy days. Those cloud observations cover 56 years from 1955 to 2010; the station closed in August 2020.
Are these numbers a forecast?
No. These are long-run monthly station statistics, not a forecast and not the probability that cloud will obscure totality. Use current BOM forecasts, satellite imagery, warnings, and safe local access information close to 22 July 2028.
Station sources and scope
- Sydney (Observatory Hill), station 066062 — Historical central-Sydney reference station. BOM Sydney (Observatory Hill) source CSV.
- Bourke Airport AWS, station 048245 — Inland New South Wales reference station. BOM Bourke Airport AWS source CSV.
- Dubbo Airport AWS, station 065070 — Dubbo rainfall reference; not usable as a long cloud record. BOM Dubbo Airport AWS source CSV.
- Cocos Island Airport, station 200284 — Indian Ocean rainfall reference; no published long cloud-day values. BOM Cocos Island Airport source CSV.
Figures reproduce BOM all-years station summaries as checked on 25 July 2026. BOM updates these summaries as observations become available; the verification date and record metadata make this transcription auditable rather than immutable.